Tampa Bay Rays @ Houston Astros
MEDIUM confidence · Model lean: Houston Astros -1.5 (who the model rates higher — see the Kelly card for the actual bet)
Composite score breakdown
How the 55/100 edge score is built.
Books disagree by 0.0 pts on the spread.
Best price beats consensus by 0.9% implied.
Market favors Houston Astros by 1.5.
Neutral conditions.
Line moved 3.0 pt toward Houston Astros since open (confirms the pick).
Kelly bet sizing
Half KellyNo bet. No positive-EV side at these prices
Weather at venue
AI Game Analysis
Powered by Claude (Opus 4.8)
Generate a natural-language read on where the value is, a suggested unit size, and the risks worth watching.
Sharp source screenshot
The Action Network screenshot this game's sharp data was read from. Auto-deleted once the game is verified over.
Line movement
Captured automatically every few hours. The last row before game time is the closing line — used to grade the model.
| Captured | Spread | Total | Home ML | Score | Recommended |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 5, 11:00 AM(open) | +1.5 | 8.5 | +111 | 48 | No bet |
| Jul 5, 12:00 PM | +1.5 | 8.5 | +110 | 48 | No bet |
| Jul 5, 1:00 PM | +1.5 | 8.5 | +105 | 49 | No bet |
| Jul 5, 2:00 PM | +1.5 | 8.5 | +77 | 56 | No bet |
| Jul 5, 3:00 PM | -1.5 | 9 | -113 | 55 | $11 Tampa Bay Rays |
| Jul 5, 4:00 PM | -1.5 | 9 | -116 | 55 | $16 Tampa Bay Rays |
| Jul 5, 6:01 PM(latest) | -1.5 | 9 | -116 | 55 | No bet |
Line shopping
Every book on the board — grab the best number.
| Book | Tampa Bay Rays ML | Houston Astros ML | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | -101 | -116 | -1.5 (-26) | 9 |
| FanDuel | -102 | -116 | +1.5 (-188) | 9 |
| Fanatics | -105 | -115 | +1.5 (-190) | 9 |
| MyBookie.ag | -101 | -116 | +1.5 (-187) | 9 |
| DraftKings | -102 | -118 | +1.5 (-189) | 9 |
| Caesars | +100 | -120 | -1.5 (+170) | 9 |
| BetRivers | -103 | -121 | +1.5 (-205) | 9 |
| BetMGM | -102 | -118 | +1.5 (-190) | 9 |
| Bovada | -102 | -118 | -1.5 (+180) | 9 |
| LowVig.ag | +103 | -113 | -1.5 (+175) | 9 |
| BetOnline.ag | +103 | -113 | -1.5 (+174) | 9 |
| BetUS | +102 | -112 | -1.5 (+168) | 9 |