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51
MLBSat, Jul 4, 8:11 PM ET
Philadelphia Phillies @ Kansas City Royals
LOW confidence · Model lean: Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 (who the model rates higher — see the Kelly card for the actual bet)
⚠️ Marginal bet🔨 Sharp ML: Philadelphia Phillies +15%
Composite score breakdown
How the 51/100 edge score is built.
Market disagreement40/100 · w 25%
Books disagree by 0.0 pts on the spread.
Price value52/100 · w 30%
Best price beats consensus by 0.6% implied.
Line conviction51/100 · w 20%
Market favors Philadelphia Phillies by 1.5.
Weather impact62/100 · w 25%
Conditions favor unders: 80% precip.
Line movement50/100 · w 20%
Line is stable since open — no steam.
Kelly bet sizing
Quarter KellyRecommended bet
$5.00
on Kansas City Royals (+131)
Win probability
44.0%
Decimal odds
2.310
Edge
1.6%
Full Kelly
0.7%
Quarter Kelly
0.2%
Cap (5% max)
applied
Weather at venue
Forecast
Showers And Thunderstorms
Temp
80°F
Wind
3 mph WNW
Precip
80%
AI Game Analysis
Powered by Claude (Opus 4.8)
Generate a natural-language read on where the value is, a suggested unit size, and the risks worth watching.
Line movement
Captured automatically every few hours. The last row before game time is the closing line — used to grade the model.
Open spread
+1.5
Current spread
+1.5
Move
stable
| Captured | Spread | Total | Home ML | Score | Recommended |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 4, 12:03 PM(open) | +1.5 | 9 | +130 | 51 | — |
| Jul 4, 12:33 PM | +1.5 | 9 | +130 | 51 | — |
| Jul 4, 12:46 PM | +1.5 | 9 | +130 | 51 | — |
| Jul 4, 1:00 PM | +1.5 | 9 | +130 | 51 | — |
| Jul 4, 1:21 PM | +1.5 | 9 | +130 | 51 | — |
| Jul 4, 2:01 PM | +1.5 | 9 | +130 | 49 | — |
| Jul 4, 3:00 PM | +1.5 | 9 | +130 | 51 | — |
| Jul 4, 3:01 PM | +1.5 | 9 | +131 | 48 | — |
| Jul 4, 4:01 PM | +1.5 | 9 | +131 | 51 | — |
| Jul 4, 5:00 PM(latest) | +1.5 | 9 | +131 | 51 | — |
Line shopping
Every book on the board — grab the best number.
| Book | Philadelphia Phillies ML | Kansas City Royals ML | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | -154 | +131 | +1.5 (-124) | 9 |
| FanDuel | -156 | +132 | +1.5 (-128) | 9 |
| LowVig.ag | -148 | +134 | +1.5 (-118) | 9 |
| BetOnline.ag | -148 | +134 | +1.5 (-121) | 9 |
| Fanatics | -155 | +130 | +1.5 (-125) | 9 |
| Caesars | -155 | +130 | +1.5 (-125) | 9 |
| DraftKings | -156 | +129 | +1.5 (-126) | 9 |
| BetUS | -150 | +134 | +1.5 (-120) | 9 |
| MyBookie.ag | -153 | +129 | +1.5 (-124) | 9 |
| BetMGM | -155 | +125 | +1.5 (-125) | 9 |
| Bovada | -155 | +130 | +1.5 (-125) | 9 |
| BetRivers | -165 | +132 | +1.5 (-122) | 9 |