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55
MLBSat, Jul 4, 7:11 PM ET
Tampa Bay Rays @ Houston Astros
MEDIUM confidence · Model lean: Houston Astros -1.5 (who the model rates higher — see the Kelly card for the actual bet)
✅ Good betNo Sharp Action · ML
Composite score breakdown
How the 55/100 edge score is built.
Market disagreement40/100 · w 25%
Books disagree by 0.0 pts on the spread.
Price value54/100 · w 30%
Best price beats consensus by 0.9% implied.
Line conviction51/100 · w 20%
Market favors Houston Astros by 1.5.
Weather impact50/100 · w 25%
Neutral conditions.
Line movement84/100 · w 20%
Line moved 1.7 pt toward Houston Astros since open (confirms the pick).
Kelly bet sizing
Quarter KellyRecommended bet
$10.00
on Tampa Bay Rays (-49)
Win probability
47.0%
Decimal odds
3.041
Edge
42.9%
Full Kelly
14.1%
Quarter Kelly
3.5%
Cap (5% max)
applied
Weather at venue
Forecast
Slight Chance Showers And Thunderstorms
Temp
95°F
Wind
5 mph SW
Precip
17%
AI Game Analysis
Powered by Claude (Opus 4.8)
Generate a natural-language read on where the value is, a suggested unit size, and the risks worth watching.
Line movement
Captured automatically every few hours. The last row before game time is the closing line — used to grade the model.
Open spread
+0.2
Current spread
-1.5
Move
-1.7 toward home
| Captured | Spread | Total | Home ML | Score | Recommended |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 4, 12:03 PM(open) | +0.2 | 7.3 | -110 | 58 | — |
| Jul 4, 12:33 PM | +0.2 | 7.3 | -110 | 57 | — |
| Jul 4, 12:46 PM | +0.7 | 7.3 | -109 | 60 | — |
| Jul 4, 1:00 PM | +0.7 | 7.3 | -109 | 60 | — |
| Jul 4, 1:21 PM | +0.7 | 7.3 | -109 | 60 | — |
| Jul 4, 2:01 PM | -1.5 | 7.3 | -109 | 55 | — |
| Jul 4, 3:00 PM | -1.5 | 7.1 | -110 | 55 | — |
| Jul 4, 3:01 PM | -1.5 | 7.1 | -110 | 55 | — |
| Jul 4, 4:01 PM | -1.5 | 7 | -109 | 55 | — |
| Jul 4, 5:00 PM | +1.5 | 7 | -108 | 54 | — |
| Jul 4, 6:01 PM | +1.5 | 7 | -107 | 54 | No bet |
| Jul 4, 7:01 PM(latest) | +1.5 | 7 | -106 | 54 | No bet |
Line shopping
Every book on the board — grab the best number.
| Book | Tampa Bay Rays ML | Houston Astros ML | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | -49 | -114 | -1.5 (-164) | 7 |
| FanDuel | -104 | -112 | +1.5 (-210) | 7 |
| Fanatics | -105 | -115 | +1.5 (-195) | 7 |
| BetOnline.ag | +101 | -111 | +1.5 (-193) | 7 |
| LowVig.ag | +101 | -111 | +1.5 (-193) | 7 |
| Caesars | -105 | -115 | +1.5 (-195) | 7 |
| DraftKings | -106 | -113 | +1.5 (-198) | 7 |
| MyBookie.ag | -105 | -112 | +1.5 (-190) | 7 |
| BetMGM | -105 | -115 | +1.5 (-200) | 7 |
| BetRivers | -104 | -121 | +1.5 (-225) | 7 |
| BetUS | +100 | -110 | +1.5 (-195) | 7 |
| Bovada | -104 | -116 | -1.5 (+195) | 7 |