Minnesota Twins @ New York Yankees
MEDIUM confidence · Model lean: Minnesota Twins -5 (who the model rates higher — see the Kelly card for the actual bet)
Composite score breakdown
How the 63/100 edge score is built.
Books disagree by 1.0 pts on the spread.
Best price beats consensus by 1.4% implied.
Market favors Minnesota Twins by 5.0.
Conditions favor unders: 52% precip.
Line moved 6.5 pt toward Minnesota Twins since open (confirms the pick).
Live score
Live bet calculator
The win% is already filled in from ESPN's live model (it factors the score + time left), so you don't have to guess — just enter the live price your book shows and it does the rest.
ESPN live model: Minnesota Twins 92% · New York Yankees 8% — a reference, not a betting line.
Heads up: live betting usually carries a bigger book margin (worse prices) and swings fast. Only bet when your read is genuinely ahead of the price — and remember your win% is a guess, so keep live bets small.
Weather at venue
AI Game Analysis
Powered by Claude (Opus 4.8)
Generate a natural-language read on where the value is, a suggested unit size, and the risks worth watching.
Line movement
Captured automatically every few hours. The last row before game time is the closing line — used to grade the model.
| Captured | Spread | Total | Home ML | Score | Recommended |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 4, 12:03 PM(open) | -1.5 | 9.9 | -163 | 49 | — |
| Jul 4, 12:33 PM | -1.5 | 9.9 | -163 | 49 | — |
| Jul 4, 12:46 PM | -1.5 | 10 | -160 | 49 | — |
| Jul 4, 1:00 PM | -1.5 | 10 | -159 | 49 | — |
| Jul 4, 1:21 PM | -1.5 | 10 | -161 | 49 | — |
| Jul 4, 2:01 PM | -1.5 | 10 | -162 | 49 | — |
| Jul 4, 3:00 PM | -1.5 | 10 | -155 | 49 | — |
| Jul 4, 3:01 PM | -1.5 | 10 | -155 | 49 | — |
| Jul 4, 4:01 PM | -1.5 | 10.1 | -150 | 49 | — |
| Jul 4, 5:00 PM(latest) | -1.5 | 10.4 | -152 | 49 | — |
Line shopping
Every book on the board — grab the best number.
| Book | Minnesota Twins ML | New York Yankees ML | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | -2191 | +817 | +5 (-46) | 12.6 |
| FanDuel | -2500 | +900 | +5.5 (-136) | 12.5 |
| Fanatics | -1400 | +750 | +4.5 (+105) | 12.5 |
| MyBookie.ag | -1429 | +700 | +4.5 (+100) | 13 |
| Caesars | -1800 | +850 | +5.5 (-150) | 12.5 |
| BetRivers | -5000 | +950 | +5 (-132) | 12.5 |
| Bovada | -1800 | +800 | +4.5 (-105) | 12.5 |
| DraftKings | -1600 | +710 | +4.5 (+100) | 12.5 |
| BetMGM | -2000 | +875 | +5.5 (-150) | 12.5 |