← All games
57
MLBSat, Jul 4, 11:06 AM ET
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Washington Nationals
MEDIUM confidence · Model lean: Pittsburgh Pirates -3.5 (who the model rates higher — see the Kelly card for the actual bet)
✅ Good bet
Composite score breakdown
How the 57/100 edge score is built.
Market disagreement40/100 · w 25%
Books disagree by 0.0 pts on the spread.
Price value57/100 · w 30%
Best price beats consensus by 1.7% implied.
Line conviction59/100 · w 20%
Market favors Pittsburgh Pirates by 3.5.
Weather impact50/100 · w 25%
Neutral conditions.
Line movement85/100 · w 20%
Line moved 2.0 pt toward Pittsburgh Pirates since open (confirms the pick).
Kelly bet sizing
Quarter KellyRecommended bet
$15.00
on Washington Nationals (+1030)
Win probability
47.0%
Decimal odds
11.300
Edge
431.1%
Full Kelly
38.2%
Quarter Kelly
9.5%
Cap (5% max)
applied
Weather at venue
Forecast
Sunny
Temp
98°F
Wind
3 mph W
Precip
1%
AI Game Analysis
Powered by Claude (Opus 4.8)
Generate a natural-language read on where the value is, a suggested unit size, and the risks worth watching.
Line movement
Captured automatically every few hours. The last row before game time is the closing line — used to grade the model.
Open spread
+1.5
Current spread
+3.5
Move
+2 toward away
| Captured | Spread | Total | Home ML | Score | Recommended |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 4, 12:03 PM(open) | +1.5 | 9.8 | +140 | 49 | — |
| Jul 4, 12:33 PM | +1.5 | 9.8 | +140 | 49 | — |
| Jul 4, 12:46 PM | +1.5 | 10 | +139 | 49 | — |
| Jul 4, 1:00 PM | +1.5 | 10 | +139 | 49 | — |
| Jul 4, 1:21 PM | +1.5 | 10 | +136 | 49 | — |
| Jul 4, 2:01 PM | +1.5 | 10.2 | +135 | 49 | — |
| Jul 4, 3:00 PM | +1.5 | 10.5 | +132 | 49 | — |
| Jul 4, 3:01 PM(latest) | +1.5 | 10.5 | +133 | 48 | — |
Line shopping
Every book on the board — grab the best number.
| Book | Pittsburgh Pirates ML | Washington Nationals ML | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | -3850 | +1030 | +3.5 (+127) | 8.4 |
| FanDuel | -4000 | +1100 | +3.5 (+144) | 8.5 |
| Fanatics | -3000 | +1300 | +3.5 (+130) | 8.5 |
| MyBookie.ag | -2500 | +900 | +3.5 (+120) | 8.5 |
| Caesars | -2500 | +1000 | +3.5 (+135) | 8.5 |
| DraftKings | -3500 | +940 | +3.5 (+119) | 8.5 |
| BetMGM | -2500 | +950 | +3.5 (+120) | 8.5 |
| BetRivers | -10000 | +950 | +3.5 (+115) | 8 |
| Bovada | -2800 | +1100 | +3.5 (+130) | 8.5 |