Baltimore Orioles @ Cincinnati Reds
LOW confidence · Model lean: Cincinnati Reds -1.5 (who the model rates higher — see the Kelly card for the actual bet)
Composite score breakdown
How the 48/100 edge score is built.
Books disagree by 0.0 pts on the spread.
Best price beats consensus by 0.8% implied.
Market favors Cincinnati Reds by 1.5.
Neutral conditions.
Line is stable since open — no steam.
Kelly bet sizing
Quarter Kelly🔨 Sharp play. This bet follows the sharp money, not the model's own read — so the composite score may be low. You're betting where the pros' money is.
Weather at venue
AI Game Analysis
Powered by Claude (Opus 4.8)
Generate a natural-language read on where the value is, a suggested unit size, and the risks worth watching.
Line movement
Captured automatically every few hours. The last row before game time is the closing line — used to grade the model.
| Captured | Spread | Total | Home ML | Score | Recommended |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 4, 12:03 PM(open) | -1.2 | 9.2 | -121 | 60 | — |
| Jul 4, 12:33 PM | -1.2 | 9.2 | -121 | 58 | — |
| Jul 4, 12:46 PM | -1 | 9.3 | -121 | 57 | — |
| Jul 4, 1:00 PM | -0.7 | 9.3 | -121 | 56 | — |
| Jul 4, 1:21 PM | -1 | 9.2 | -122 | 57 | — |
| Jul 4, 2:01 PM | -1.5 | 9.2 | -122 | 48 | — |
| Jul 4, 3:00 PM | -1.5 | 9.1 | -127 | 48 | — |
| Jul 4, 3:01 PM | -1.5 | 9.1 | -127 | 48 | — |
| Jul 4, 4:01 PM | -1.5 | 9.1 | -127 | 48 | — |
| Jul 4, 5:00 PM(latest) | -1.5 | 9 | -127 | 48 | — |
Line shopping
Every book on the board — grab the best number.
| Book | Baltimore Orioles ML | Cincinnati Reds ML | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | +109 | -127 | -1.5 (+124) | 9 |
| FanDuel | +108 | -126 | -1.5 (+160) | 9 |
| Fanatics | +105 | -125 | -1.5 (+150) | 9 |
| LowVig.ag | +112 | -123 | -1.5 (+162) | 9 |
| BetOnline.ag | +112 | -123 | -1.5 (+161) | 9 |
| Caesars | +110 | -130 | -1.5 (+158) | 9 |
| DraftKings | +109 | -131 | -1.5 (+158) | 9 |
| MyBookie.ag | +111 | -131 | -1.5 (+148) | 9 |
| BetUS | +112 | -123 | -1.5 (+160) | 9 |
| BetMGM | +105 | -125 | -1.5 (+155) | 9 |
| BetRivers | +100 | -125 | +1.5 (-205) | 9 |
| Bovada | +111 | -133 | -1.5 (+160) | 9.5 |