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56
WNBAMon, Jul 6, 7:40 PM ET
Golden State Valkyries @ Washington Mystics
MEDIUM confidence · Model lean: Golden State Valkyries -4.5 (who the model rates higher — see the Kelly card for the actual bet)
🚫 NO BET
Composite score breakdown
How the 56/100 edge score is built.
Market disagreement40/100 · w 25%
Books disagree by 0.0 pts on the spread.
Price value56/100 · w 30%
Best price beats consensus by 1.4% implied.
Line conviction63/100 · w 20%
Market favors Golden State Valkyries by 4.5.
Line movement70/100 · w 20%
Line moved 1.0 pt toward Golden State Valkyries since open (confirms the pick).
Kelly bet sizing
Half KellyRecommended bet
$5.00
on Washington Mystics (+146)
Win probability
47.0%
Decimal odds
2.460
Edge
15.6%
Full Kelly
6.3%
Half Kelly
1.0%
Cap (5% max)
applied
AI Game Analysis
Powered by Claude (Opus 4.8)
Generate a natural-language read on where the value is, a suggested unit size, and the risks worth watching.
Line movement
Captured automatically every few hours. The last row before game time is the closing line — used to grade the model.
Open spread
+3.5
Current spread
+4.5
Move
+1 toward away
| Captured | Spread | Total | Home ML | Score | Recommended |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 4, 11:01 PM(open) | +3.5 | 159.5 | +140 | 49 | No bet |
| Jul 5, 12:01 AM | +3.5 | 158.5 | +137 | 50 | No bet |
| Jul 5, 1:00 AM | +3.5 | 158.5 | +137 | 50 | No bet |
| Jul 5, 2:00 AM | +3.5 | 158.3 | +137 | 50 | No bet |
| Jul 5, 3:00 AM | +3.5 | 158.3 | +137 | 50 | No bet |
| Jul 5, 4:00 AM | +3.5 | 158.3 | +137 | 50 | No bet |
| Jul 5, 5:00 AM | +3.5 | 158.3 | +137 | 50 | No bet |
| Jul 5, 6:00 AM | +3.5 | 158.3 | +137 | 50 | No bet |
| Jul 5, 7:00 AM | +3.5 | 158.3 | +137 | 50 | No bet |
| Jul 5, 8:00 AM | +3.5 | 158.3 | +137 | 50 | No bet |
| Jul 5, 9:00 AM | +3.5 | 158.3 | +137 | 50 | No bet |
| Jul 5, 10:00 AM | +3.5 | 158.3 | +137 | 50 | No bet |
| Jul 5, 11:00 AM | +3.5 | 158.3 | +137 | 50 | No bet |
| Jul 5, 12:00 PM | +3.5 | 158.3 | +137 | 50 | No bet |
| Jul 5, 1:00 PM | +3.5 | 158.3 | +137 | 50 | No bet |
| Jul 5, 2:00 PM | +3.5 | 158 | +138 | 54 | No bet |
| Jul 5, 3:00 PM | +3.5 | 157.7 | +138 | 54 | No bet |
| Jul 5, 4:00 PM | +3.5 | 157.3 | +138 | 54 | No bet |
| Jul 5, 6:01 PM | +4.5 | 157.3 | +141 | 55 | $5 Washington Mystics |
| Jul 5, 7:00 PM(latest) | +4.5 | 157.2 | +144 | 56 | $5 Washington Mystics |
Line shopping
Every book on the board — grab the best number.
| Book | Golden State Valkyries ML | Washington Mystics ML | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | -177 | +146 | +4.5 (-108) | 157.1 |
| DraftKings | -166 | +140 | +4.5 (-110) | 157.5 |
| Fanatics | -180 | +150 | +4.5 (-110) | 157.5 |
| Caesars | -165 | +140 | +4.5 (-110) | 157 |
| MyBookie.ag | -188 | +152 | +4.5 (-110) | 157 |
| FanDuel | -172 | +140 | +4.5 (-110) | 156.5 |
| LowVig.ag | — | — | +4.5 (-103) | 157 |
| BetOnline.ag | — | — | +4.5 (-105) | 157 |
| Bovada | -170 | +145 | +4.5 (-105) | 157 |
| BetRivers | -186 | +148 | +4.5 (-112) | 157.5 |
| BetUS | — | — | +4.5 (-105) | 157 |
| BetMGM | -190 | +155 | +4.5 (-110) | 157.5 |