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60
WNBAMon, Jul 6, 10:10 PM ET
Seattle Storm @ Los Angeles Sparks
MEDIUM confidence · Model lean: Los Angeles Sparks -4.5 (who the model rates higher — see the Kelly card for the actual bet)
🚫 NO BET
Composite score breakdown
How the 60/100 edge score is built.
Market disagreement55/100 · w 25%
Books disagree by 1.0 pts on the spread.
Price value55/100 · w 30%
Best price beats consensus by 1.2% implied.
Line conviction63/100 · w 20%
Market favors Los Angeles Sparks by 4.5.
Line movement70/100 · w 20%
Line moved 1.0 pt toward Los Angeles Sparks since open (confirms the pick).
Kelly bet sizing
Half KellyRecommended bet
$5.00
on Seattle Storm (+144)
Win probability
47.0%
Decimal odds
2.440
Edge
14.7%
Full Kelly
6.0%
Half Kelly
0.9%
Cap (5% max)
applied
AI Game Analysis
Powered by Claude (Opus 4.8)
Generate a natural-language read on where the value is, a suggested unit size, and the risks worth watching.
Line movement
Captured automatically every few hours. The last row before game time is the closing line — used to grade the model.
Open spread
-3.5
Current spread
-4.5
Move
-1 toward home
| Captured | Spread | Total | Home ML | Score | Recommended |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 4, 11:01 PM(open) | -3.5 | 174.5 | -167 | 50 | No bet |
| Jul 5, 12:01 AM | -3.5 | 174.5 | -167 | 50 | No bet |
| Jul 5, 1:00 AM | -3.5 | 174 | -168 | 54 | No bet |
| Jul 5, 2:00 AM | -3.5 | 173.3 | -168 | 54 | No bet |
| Jul 5, 3:00 AM | -3.5 | 173.3 | -168 | 54 | No bet |
| Jul 5, 4:00 AM | -3.5 | 173.3 | -168 | 54 | No bet |
| Jul 5, 5:00 AM | -3.5 | 173.3 | -168 | 54 | No bet |
| Jul 5, 6:00 AM | -3.5 | 173.3 | -168 | 54 | No bet |
| Jul 5, 7:00 AM | -3.5 | 173.1 | -168 | 54 | No bet |
| Jul 5, 8:00 AM | -3.5 | 173.1 | -168 | 54 | No bet |
| Jul 5, 9:00 AM | -3.5 | 173.1 | -168 | 54 | No bet |
| Jul 5, 10:00 AM | -3.5 | 173.1 | -168 | 54 | No bet |
| Jul 5, 11:00 AM | -3.5 | 173.1 | -168 | 54 | No bet |
| Jul 5, 12:00 PM | -3.5 | 173.3 | -168 | 54 | No bet |
| Jul 5, 1:00 PM | -3.5 | 173.5 | -168 | 54 | No bet |
| Jul 5, 2:00 PM | -3.5 | 173.5 | -168 | 54 | No bet |
| Jul 5, 3:00 PM | -3.5 | 173.8 | -168 | 54 | No bet |
| Jul 5, 4:00 PM | -3.5 | 174.2 | -168 | 54 | No bet |
| Jul 5, 6:01 PM | -4.5 | 174.2 | -171 | 59 | $5 Seattle Storm |
| Jul 5, 7:00 PM(latest) | -4.5 | 174.2 | -170 | 59 | $5 Seattle Storm |
Line shopping
Every book on the board — grab the best number.
| Book | Seattle Storm ML | Los Angeles Sparks ML | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | +144 | -174 | -4.5 (-110) | 174.4 |
| DraftKings | +140 | -166 | -3.5 (-110) | 173.5 |
| Fanatics | +150 | -180 | -4 (-110) | 174.5 |
| Caesars | +140 | -165 | -3.5 (-115) | 174.5 |
| FanDuel | +146 | -180 | -4.5 (-108) | 174.5 |
| MyBookie.ag | +139 | -172 | -3.5 (-110) | 174 |
| LowVig.ag | — | — | -4.5 (-108) | 174.5 |
| BetOnline.ag | — | — | -4.5 (-110) | 174.5 |
| Bovada | +145 | -170 | -4.5 (-110) | 174.5 |
| BetUS | — | — | -4.5 (-110) | 174.5 |
| BetMGM | +150 | -185 | — (—) | 174.5 |