Portland Fire @ Seattle Storm
MEDIUM confidence · Model lean: Seattle Storm -4.5 (who the model rates higher — see the Kelly card for the actual bet)
Composite score breakdown
How the 57/100 edge score is built.
Books disagree by 0.5 pts on the spread.
Best price beats consensus by 1.4% implied.
Market favors Seattle Storm by 4.5.
Line moved 0.8 pt toward Seattle Storm since open (confirms the pick).
Kelly bet sizing
Quarter Kelly🔨 Sharp play. This bet follows the sharp money, not the model's own read — so the composite score may be low. You're betting where the pros' money is.
AI Game Analysis
Powered by Claude (Opus 4.8)
Generate a natural-language read on where the value is, a suggested unit size, and the risks worth watching.
Sharp source screenshot
The Action Network screenshot this game's sharp data was read from. Auto-deleted once the game is verified over.
Line movement
Captured automatically every few hours. The last row before game time is the closing line — used to grade the model.
| Captured | Spread | Total | Home ML | Score | Recommended |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 4, 12:03 PM(open) | -3.7 | 169.2 | -165 | 53 | — |
| Jul 4, 12:33 PM | -3.7 | 169.2 | -165 | 52 | — |
| Jul 4, 12:46 PM | -3.7 | 170 | -166 | 57 | — |
| Jul 4, 1:00 PM | -3.7 | 169.9 | -166 | 57 | — |
| Jul 4, 1:21 PM | -3.9 | 169.9 | -172 | 54 | — |
| Jul 4, 2:01 PM | -4 | 170.2 | -174 | 54 | — |
| Jul 4, 3:00 PM | -4 | 171.1 | -176 | 54 | — |
| Jul 4, 3:01 PM | -4 | 171.1 | -176 | 54 | — |
| Jul 4, 4:01 PM | -4 | 171.5 | -177 | 54 | — |
| Jul 4, 5:00 PM(latest) | -4.5 | 171.5 | -181 | 56 | — |
Line shopping
Every book on the board — grab the best number.
| Book | Portland Fire ML | Seattle Storm ML | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | +154 | -186 | -4.5 (-110) | 171.5 |
| FanDuel | +154 | -192 | -4.5 (-108) | 171.5 |
| Fanatics | +155 | -190 | -4.5 (-105) | 171.5 |
| MyBookie.ag | +150 | -185 | -4.5 (-110) | 171.5 |
| BetRivers | +138 | -175 | -4.5 (-108) | 171.5 |
| BetMGM | +150 | -185 | -4.5 (-105) | 171.5 |
| DraftKings | +160 | -192 | -4.5 (-108) | 171.5 |
| LowVig.ag | +157 | -180 | -4 (-113) | 171.5 |
| Caesars | +158 | -190 | -4 (-115) | 171.5 |
| BetOnline.ag | +157 | -180 | -4 (-115) | 171.5 |
| Bovada | +165 | -195 | -4.5 (-115) | 171.5 |
| BetUS | +155 | -180 | -4.5 (-110) | 171.5 |