Golden State Valkyries @ Atlanta Dream
HIGH confidence · Model lean: Atlanta Dream -3.5 (who the model rates higher — see the Kelly card for the actual bet)
✓ You've bet this: Golden State Valkyries ML @ DraftKings · tracked
Composite score breakdown
How the 74/100 edge score is built.
Books disagree by 3.5 pts on the spread.
Best price beats consensus by 9.4% implied.
Market favors Atlanta Dream by 3.5.
Line is stable since open — no steam.
Kelly bet sizing
Quarter KellyNo bet. No positive-EV side at these prices
AI Game Analysis
Powered by Claude (Opus 4.8)
Generate a natural-language read on where the value is, a suggested unit size, and the risks worth watching.
Sharp source screenshot
The Action Network screenshot this game's sharp data was read from. Auto-deleted once the game is verified over.
Line movement
Captured automatically every few hours. The last row before game time is the closing line — used to grade the model.
| Captured | Spread | Total | Home ML | Score | Recommended |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 4, 12:03 PM(open) | -3.8 | 162.5 | -165 | 58 | — |
| Jul 4, 12:33 PM | -3.8 | 162.5 | -165 | 56 | — |
| Jul 4, 12:46 PM | -3.8 | 163.1 | -172 | 57 | — |
| Jul 4, 1:00 PM | -3.8 | 163.1 | -171 | 56 | — |
| Jul 4, 1:21 PM | -3.8 | 163 | -170 | 56 | — |
| Jul 4, 2:01 PM | -4.5 | 163 | -173 | 60 | — |
| Jul 4, 3:00 PM | -4.5 | 163.3 | -176 | 61 | — |
| Jul 4, 3:01 PM | -4.5 | 163.3 | -176 | 61 | — |
| Jul 4, 4:01 PM(latest) | -4.5 | 163.4 | -187 | 56 | — |
Line shopping
Every book on the board — grab the best number.
| Book | Golden State Valkyries ML | Atlanta Dream ML | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | +72 | -139 | -3.5 (-95) | 163.1 |
| FanDuel | -102 | -125 | +1.5 (-140) | 162.5 |
| Fanatics | +105 | -140 | -2.5 (+100) | 162.5 |
| DraftKings | +120 | -154 | -3.5 (-115) | 162.5 |
| MyBookie.ag | +157 | -195 | -5 (-110) | 162.5 |
| BetRivers | +112 | -159 | -2.5 (-120) | 162.5 |
| Caesars | -135 | +105 | +1.5 (-115) | 165.5 |
| LowVig.ag | +161 | -185 | -5 (-110) | 163.5 |
| BetOnline.ag | +161 | -185 | -5 (-112) | 163.5 |
| BetMGM | -110 | -118 | -1.5 (-102) | 163.5 |
| Bovada | +160 | -185 | -5 (-110) | 163 |
| BetUS | +160 | -185 | -5 (-110) | 163 |