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52
WNBASun, Jul 5, 7:00 PM ET
Indiana Fever @ Las Vegas Aces
LOW confidence · Model lean: Las Vegas Aces -6.5 (who the model rates higher — see the Kelly card for the actual bet)
Composite score breakdown
How the 52/100 edge score is built.
Market disagreement40/100 · w 25%
Books disagree by 0.0 pts on the spread.
Price value55/100 · w 30%
Best price beats consensus by 1.3% implied.
Line conviction71/100 · w 20%
Market favors Las Vegas Aces by 6.5.
Line movement44/100 · w 20%
Line is stable since open — no steam.
Kelly bet sizing
Quarter KellyNo bet. Score below threshold — no edge
AI Game Analysis
Powered by Claude (Opus 4.8)
Generate a natural-language read on where the value is, a suggested unit size, and the risks worth watching.
Line movement
Captured automatically every few hours. The last row before game time is the closing line — used to grade the model.
Open spread
-6.8
Current spread
-6.5
Move
+0.3 toward the over
| Captured | Spread | Total | Home ML | Score | Recommended |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 4, 12:03 PM(open) | -6.8 | 182.8 | -263 | 61 | — |
| Jul 4, 12:33 PM | -6.8 | 182.8 | -263 | 59 | — |
| Jul 4, 12:46 PM | -6.6 | 182.9 | -256 | 57 | — |
| Jul 4, 1:00 PM | -6.6 | 182.9 | -256 | 57 | — |
| Jul 4, 1:21 PM | -6.6 | 183.1 | -256 | 57 | — |
| Jul 4, 2:01 PM | -6.5 | 183.1 | -256 | 56 | — |
| Jul 4, 3:00 PM | -6.5 | 183.1 | -256 | 56 | — |
| Jul 4, 3:01 PM | -6.5 | 183.1 | -256 | 56 | — |
| Jul 4, 4:01 PM | -6.5 | 183.2 | -256 | 56 | — |
| Jul 4, 5:00 PM | -6.5 | 183.2 | -253 | 52 | — |
| Jul 4, 6:01 PM(latest) | -6.5 | 183.3 | -253 | 52 | No bet |
Line shopping
Every book on the board — grab the best number.
| Book | Indiana Fever ML | Las Vegas Aces ML | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | +202 | -253 | -6.5 (-110) | 183.3 |
| DraftKings | +195 | -238 | -6.5 (-110) | 183.5 |
| Fanatics | +195 | -240 | -6.5 (-110) | 183.5 |
| BetRivers | +210 | -275 | -6.5 (-114) | 182.5 |
| FanDuel | +198 | -250 | -6.5 (-110) | 182.5 |
| Caesars | +210 | -260 | -6.5 (-110) | 183.5 |
| BetOnline.ag | — | — | -6.5 (-110) | 183.5 |
| LowVig.ag | — | — | -6.5 (-108) | 183.5 |
| Bovada | — | — | -6.5 (-110) | 183.5 |