England @ Mexico
LOW confidence · Model lean: England 0 (who the model rates higher — see the Kelly card for the actual bet)
✓ You've bet this: Mexico ML @ FanDuel · tracked
Composite score breakdown
How the 47/100 edge score is built.
Books disagree by 0.0 pts on the spread.
Best price beats consensus by 1.1% implied.
Market favors England by 0.0.
Line is stable since open — no steam.
Kelly bet sizing
Half Kelly🔨 Sharp play. This bet follows the sharp money, not the model's own read — so the composite score may be low. You're betting where the pros' money is.
AI Game Analysis
Powered by Claude (Opus 4.8)
Generate a natural-language read on where the value is, a suggested unit size, and the risks worth watching.
Sharp source screenshot
The Action Network screenshot this game's sharp data was read from. Auto-deleted once the game is verified over.
Line movement
Captured automatically every few hours. The last row before game time is the closing line — used to grade the model.
| Captured | Spread | Total | Home ML | Score | Recommended |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 4, 12:03 PM(open) | +0.2 | 2.3 | +207 | 49 | — |
| Jul 4, 12:33 PM | +0.2 | 2.3 | +207 | 50 | — |
| Jul 4, 12:46 PM | +0.2 | 2.3 | +208 | 49 | — |
| Jul 4, 1:00 PM | +0.2 | 2.3 | +208 | 49 | — |
| Jul 4, 1:21 PM | +0.2 | 2.3 | +208 | 49 | — |
| Jul 4, 2:01 PM | +0.3 | 2.3 | +207 | 50 | — |
| Jul 4, 3:00 PM | +0.3 | 2.3 | +208 | 49 | — |
| Jul 4, 3:01 PM | +0.3 | 2.2 | +208 | 49 | — |
| Jul 4, 4:01 PM | +0.3 | 2.2 | +208 | 49 | — |
| Jul 4, 5:00 PM | +0.3 | 2.2 | +208 | 49 | — |
| Jul 4, 6:01 PM | +0.3 | 2.2 | +208 | 49 | No bet |
| Jul 4, 7:01 PM | +0.3 | 2.1 | +209 | 49 | No bet |
| Jul 4, 8:01 PM | +0.3 | 2.2 | +208 | 49 | No bet |
| Jul 4, 9:00 PM | +0.3 | 2.2 | +208 | 49 | No bet |
| Jul 4, 10:00 PM | +0.3 | 2.2 | +208 | 49 | No bet |
| Jul 4, 11:01 PM | +0.3 | 2.2 | +208 | 49 | No bet |
| Jul 5, 12:01 AM | +0.3 | 2.2 | +213 | 49 | No bet |
| Jul 5, 1:00 AM | +0.3 | 2.2 | +213 | 49 | No bet |
| Jul 5, 2:00 AM | +0.3 | 2.2 | +212 | 50 | No bet |
| Jul 5, 3:00 AM | +0.3 | 2.3 | +213 | 49 | No bet |
| Jul 5, 4:00 AM | +0.3 | 2.2 | +212 | 50 | No bet |
| Jul 5, 5:00 AM | +0.3 | 2.2 | +212 | 50 | No bet |
| Jul 5, 6:00 AM | +0.3 | 2.2 | +212 | 50 | No bet |
| Jul 5, 7:00 AM | +0.3 | 2.2 | +215 | 49 | No bet |
| Jul 5, 8:00 AM | +0.3 | 2.2 | +212 | 50 | No bet |
| Jul 5, 9:00 AM | +0.3 | 2.2 | +212 | 50 | No bet |
| Jul 5, 10:00 AM | +0.3 | 2.2 | +211 | 50 | No bet |
| Jul 5, 11:00 AM | +0.3 | 2.2 | +211 | 50 | No bet |
| Jul 5, 12:00 PM | +0.3 | 2.2 | +211 | 50 | No bet |
| Jul 5, 1:00 PM | 0 | 2.2 | +210 | 48 | No bet |
| Jul 5, 2:00 PM | 0 | 2.2 | +209 | 48 | No bet |
| Jul 5, 3:00 PM | 0 | 2.2 | +209 | 48 | No bet |
| Jul 5, 4:00 PM | 0 | 2.2 | +208 | 48 | No bet |
| Jul 5, 6:01 PM | 0 | 2.2 | +207 | 47 | $12 Mexico 🔨 Mexico +27% |
| Jul 5, 7:00 PM(latest) | 0 | 2.2 | +117 | 48 | $6 Mexico 🔨 Mexico +26% |
Line shopping
Every book on the board — grab the best number.
| Book | England ML | Mexico ML | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | -127 | +113 | 0 (+108) | 2.2 |
| BetRivers | -134 | +118 | — (—) | 2.5 |
| Fanatics | -128 | +114 | — (—) | — |
| FanDuel | -128 | +114 | — (—) | — |
| BetMGM | -124 | +110 | — (—) | 2.5 |
| MyBookie.ag | -124 | +110 | 0 (+105) | 2 |
| DraftKings | -126 | +111 | — (—) | — |
| BetUS | -128 | +114 | 0 (+105) | 2 |
| BetOnline.ag | -125 | +111 | 0 (+111) | 2 |
| Bovada | -126 | +111 | 0 (+111) | 2 |